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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround wins the award. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking shock.

However the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime strugglers rising in unison. In an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

This is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still